The crypto industry’s best shot at comprehensive regulatory clarity is looking increasingly shaky. Polymarket bettors currently peg the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 somewhere between 24% and 48%, a steep fall from projections that once topped 70%.
What the CLARITY Act actually does
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, formally designated H.R. 3633, tries to solve a problem the crypto industry has complained about for years. Who’s in charge?
The bill draws a clear line between what the SEC regulates and what falls under the CFTC. Investment-contract assets go to the SEC. Digital commodities go to the CFTC.
The House passed the bill with bipartisan support back in July 2025. That alone was a milestone, given that crypto legislation has historically struggled to make it out of committee, let alone through a full chamber vote.
