Polymarket odds on clarity act passage fall to record low as senate delay drags on

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The likelihood of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing in 2026 has hit a record low, according to Polymarket data. The odds fell to 24% due to continued delays in the U.S. Senate, as reported by CoinDesk. The bill, which passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, has yet to be scheduled for a Senate floor vote. With the Senate’s August recess approaching, the window for passing the bill this year is narrowing, raising concerns about regulatory clarity for the crypto industry being delayed to 2027 or beyond.

Key Takeaways

Polymarket data suggests a significant reduction in the Clarity Act’s passage likelihood for 2026, now priced at 24% YES.

The ongoing Senate delay appears consistent with scenarios where the bill does not pass this year.