Betting markets have turned decidedly bearish on crypto’s most anticipated piece of legislation. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the regulatory framework that was supposed to finally give the industry its rules of the road, now sits at roughly 30.5% odds of passing by the end of 2026 on Polymarket.
That’s a stunning reversal. Earlier this year, those same odds exceeded 70%.
From near-certainty to long shot
The CLARITY Act was designed to be the definitive answer to a question the crypto industry has been asking for years: which assets are securities and which are commodities? In English: it would tell projects whether they answer to the SEC or the CFTC, ending the regulatory ambiguity that has defined the US approach to digital assets.
For a while, it looked like the bill had real momentum. Galaxy Digital pegged the probability of passage at 75% back in May. By June, the firm had already trimmed that to 60%. Now prediction markets have slashed it nearly in half again.
