If you wanted a single week to illustrate how disconnected headline geopolitics has become from the oil market's underlying direction, this was it. On Tuesday, tankers came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. By Wednesday, the US had struck multiple Iranian targets and revoked its earlier authorization of Iranian crude sales, and reports emerged of the White House threatening to reimpose a full naval blockade.

Iran's IRGC attacked three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices over 2% and pushing Tehran toward crypto-based maritime toll payments.

More strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz served as a reminder that geopolitical risks in the Middle East are far from resolved.