Iran's leadership stability is questioned after Khamenei's funeral. No head of state in Iran by end of 2026 at 2.2% YES.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike, leading to increased instability; regime fall by end of 2026 at 9.5% YES.

Iran mourns Khamenei after a US-Israeli airstrike. Leadership change by December 31 at 16.5% YES.