New Delhi: Artificial Intelligence could make the US economy about a third larger by 2030 and still leave nearly one in five office and professional workers without a job, according to a study by economists at The Anthropic Institute.
That figure, according to the study, ‘Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI,’ comes from the most disruptive of three scenarios. It says that the scenarios “are not predictions”, with the authors attaching “no probabilities to them”.Their stated aim is to show what the economy would look like under different assumptions about how far and how fast AI spreads.
Anton Korinek, an economics professor at the University of Virginia’s Department of Economics and Darden School of Business, who also sits on Anthropic’s Economic Advisory Council; Charles I. Jones, the STANCO 25 Professor of Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business; and Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter and Peter McCrory of Anthropic’s economics team are the authors of the paper.The Anthropic’s research arm released the report Wednesday.The model splits workers into two groups. One is what the study calls cognitive occupations, meaning management, professional, sales and office jobs, the desk work that AI can take on. The other covers everything else, such as construction and electrical work, which the study assumes AI leaves untouched.It then asks how jobs, pay and growth change as AI does more of the desk work. Each number is measured against a “no-AI path,” an estimate of where the economy would have gone if AI had never arrived. For instance, a figure quoted as 8 percent above the no-AI path means 8 percent higher than that AI-free baseline.The three scenarios
