Bulgaria is heading into the autumn months with a familiar set of household expenses, but the combination of heating, fuel, school costs, services and food could put additional pressure on family budgets. Rather than one major price increase taking effect in September, households may feel the impact through a series of smaller increases and higher seasonal spending.

The latest data from the National Statistical Institute show that inflationary pressure remains. Annual inflation reached 4.5% in July, while prices were 3.7% higher than at the start of the year. The overall figure, however, does not reflect how differently individual households can be affected. Families with children, cars and high heating consumption are likely to face a noticeably different increase in their monthly expenses.

Heating is expected to become one of the main sources of additional costs as temperatures fall. Even if electricity, gas or other energy tariffs remain unchanged, increased consumption during the colder months can push household bills higher. Natural gas costs are also affected by international prices and regulated-price decisions, while electricity expenses depend heavily on consumption. The pressure on housing and utilities was already visible in July, when the category covering housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 2% from the previous month.