If Iceland joins the EU, where does that leave Norway?

A “Yes” vote could leave the EU’s other Nordic neighbour in an awkward position, putting pressure on Norway to reconsider its relationship with Brussels.

Beyond Reykjavík and Brussels, one European capital is watching Saturday’s vote particularly closely: Oslo. Norway is arguably the non-EU country with the most at stake, especially if the “Yes” side wins.

“We must recognise that an Icelandic membership process will pose special challenges for Norway as an EEA country,” Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told parliament in May.

Norway’s government has so far maintained that the European Economic Area (EEA) should remain the basis of its relationship with Brussels. But the implications of an Icelandic “Yes” would be difficult to ignore.

A shrinking club