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Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/PostmediaSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorWith the recent and dramatic blowup of trade tensions between the United States and Canada, it’s easy to forget that an interest rate decision is just days away.The Bank of Canada will announce its rate on Wednesday, Sept. 2, and while a hold is almost certain, the storm brewing between Ottawa and Washington could force an unexpected change in course down the road.Most economists expected the central bank to hold its rate steady this year and the trade dispute has just increased that likelihood. It’s the gradual hikes in 2027 that have now come into question.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again“If the trade war persists and/or worsens, the bank’s job becomes much harder,” said National Bank of Canada strategists Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie in a note Monday.Though the 50-per-cent-tariffs on $28-billion worth of Canadian goods imposed Saturday are relatively narrow they could further weaken business confidence. If they remain in place, National estimates 100,000 to 130,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk.Retaliation from Canada, followed by counter measures from the U.S., could increase the shock to the economy.“Given recent developments, the likelihood of rate cuts has clearly grown,” said the strategists.At the same time the central bank may have to deal with inflation rising above its comfort zone of 1 to 3 per cent if Canada’s counter tariffs hike prices.Schleich and Currie noted that even though markets took rate cuts off the table when the Iran war started, the Bank of Canada did not.Even when oil prices soared, policy makers said that U.S. trade restrictions might make easing necessary. In July, the governing council said it was “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.”However, the central bank has also long maintained that monetary policy “cannot offset the impacts of a trade war,” and that targeted fiscal support to industries and households is a more effective remedy.Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne and a host of other ministers will unveil measures this morning that sources say will be similar to COVID-19 economic support programs in response to the new round of tariffs.For now National Bank is keeping its call that the Bank of Canada will begin raising rates in early 2027, but admits the forecast is “fragile.”“If the trade war persists … the Bank of Canada’s next move is likely to be a cut with the timing dependent on the evolution of economic and inflation data,” they said.Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.Canada has some work to do if the nation is to face a higher tariff environment, say economists with the National Bank of Canada.National’s chart shows how Canada has slid from 5th to 19th place in global competitiveness, making it imperative that federal and provincial governments tackle the regulation, taxation and interprovincial trade barriers that have contributed to the decline.“That is an uncomfortable starting point from which to confront a more protectionist global trade regime,” said National chief economist Stefane Marion and Evelyne Gosselin.“It’s time for our political leaders to deliver made-in-Canada solutions.”Today’s Data: United States GDP and durable goods ordersEarnings: Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit Inc.If your child is starting high school next month, you may think you have time to start planning financially for their post-secondary education. The truth is, you are already late.Financial Post columnist Garry Marr offers parents some tips on saving for their children’s eduction, including registered education savings plans and tax free savings accounts.Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. 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