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Or sign-in if you have an account.Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks during a news conference in Ottawa on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, following the latest interest rate announcement. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK /PostmediaSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThe Bank of Canada held interest rates at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday as it tries to balance the risks of a slowing economy against higher inflation, but one economist thinks the central bank might be closer to ending its five-decision-long pause, with September marking a possible turning point.“In our view, the bank is getting closer to ending its pause and is waiting for the data to tell it which way to go,” Jay Zhao-Murray, chief economist at independent macroeconomic researcher Sibley Creek, said in a note on Wednesday.He said he has a couple of reasons for why the Bank of Canada is close to ending its pause, including that it dropped the word “appropriate” from Wednesday’s statement in relation to the current level of rates and eliminated the phrase “changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small” compared with the one issued on April 29.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again“The tell is that today’s hold was framed purely as a balance of risks,” he said.Zhao-Murray said the Bank of Canada emphasized that the slow growth and rising inflation resulting from the Iran conflict had created a “conundrum for monetary policy,” with the worry being that higher interest rates could slow the economy while cutting rates could feed inflation.He said he expects the Bank of Canada will have “enough information” by September to decide which scenario holds the upper hand: a stagnating economy undercut by trade troubles with the United States or inflation that has spread beyond the gas pumps to other consumer prices. The first could necessitate rate cuts, while the second could invite hikes.“Back in April, the bank held rates out of patience — looking to buy time and wait out the oil price shock,” he said. “Today, it held rates out of a tension between two opposing forces.”Zhao-Murray said once the Bank of Canada has decided which of the two scenarios holds the upper hand, it’s possible a cut or hike could come with the release of the October monetary policy report.Derek Holt, head of Scotiabank Capital Markets Economics, said the Bank of Canada is overemphasizing the effects of the trade conflict, given that approximately 90 per cent of exports to the U.S. are entering duty-free while also benefitting from a depreciating Canadian dollar.He said Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is ignoring the rising prices of other commodities besides oil and natural gas, “which is just plain wrong.”Scotiabank is calling for the interest rate to rise to three per cent by year-end.The rest of the big banks are calling for rates to remain on hold throughout 2026, while markets fully priced in one rate hike this year, based on Bloomberg’s overnight interest rate swap data.Zhao-Murray said Macklem provided clues as to what he will be watching for when it comes to upgrading the importance of inflation, including core inflation, the share of consumer price index (CPI) components rising faster than three per cent and medium- and long-term inflation expectations.At the moment, those metrics are under control, with core inflation hovering just above the two per cent mark — the Bank of Canada’s target. Policymakers on Wednesday said the share of the CPI basket rising more than three per cent is close to its historical average.The most recent Business Outlook Survey, released at the end of April, said one-year inflation expectations had climbed slightly, but remained below those recorded at the peak of the tariff conflict in 2025.“If those indicators are rising, it would be a blaring alarm that it’s time to hike rates,” Zhao-Murray said. “If they do start going up in the coming weeks and months, the game will be judging how much is enough to trigger a rate hike.” Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent for the fifth consecutive time on Wednesday.The central bank said weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter of 2026 and rising inflation from higher energy prices were key concerns that informed the governing council’s decision. — Paula Tran, Financial PostRead the full story here.Today’s data: Canada building permits for April, U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims, producer price index for food and energy, household change in net worthEarnings: Aurora Cannabis Inc., Transat AT Inc., Dollarama Inc., McGraw Hill Inc., Adobe Inc.Darren co-signed a loan for his cousin three years ago and never thought about it again since the payments were his relative’s responsibility. Recently, he got a call from the lender informing him that the loan is a few months in arrears and his cousin won’t return the lender’s calls. What are Darren’s options? Read FP Answers to find out more.Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors. Sign up here.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. 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