Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials HomeNewsPosthaste: Why the Bank of Canada should start publishing a forecast for interest ratesPart of a suggested revamp of the central bank's communications with the public regarding inflation You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/PostmediaSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThe Bank of Canada should start publishing an interest rate forecast as part of a suggested revamp of its communications with the public regarding inflation, says the C.D. Howe Institute.“One thing we suggest, which the bank does not do, and I think they’ve been reluctant to do, is that how they’re getting inflation back to target, how they think they will be able to do that, depends on what they think their own policy rate is going to be doing within this six-to-eight-quarter timeframe,” Steve Ambler, a fellow-in-residence at the Canadian think tank, said.C.D. Howe made the recommendation on rates in a report by Ambler, chief executive Jeremy Kronick and Thorsten Koeppl, another fellow-in-residence, that mostly focused on their belief that the Bank of Canada’s use of core inflation when communicating with the public can be confusing and doesn’t reflect people’s experience.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again“Their analytical complexity brings up concerns that people will find the measures out of touch with their inflation experience,” they said in the report, which was released in mid-June.Core inflation in May held around the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target, but the overall consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.2 per cent due to a 33 per cent increase in gas prices from a year ago and a 4.3 per cent increase in prices for food purchased from grocery stores, a real thorn in people’s pocketbooks.To keep Canadians more in the loop, they said policymakers should focus their communications on headline CPI inflation and its projected path over the next eight quarters along with a forecast for interest rates that will move inflation in the forecasted direction.However, they said there are a few concerns about publishing an interest rate outlook, including that it could be interpreted as “an unconditional commitment to following the predicted interest rate path,” while also jeopardizing the central bank’s credibility if it deviates from the outlook.“The solution to all these problems is clearer communication,” the authors said.“It should be clear that it’s (the rate forecast) a projection, it’s subject to uncertainty,” Ambler said.Such rate outlooks aren’t foreign to central banks. For example, the Swedish Riksbank and the Norges Bank of Norway publish them.On Thursday, the Bank of Canada published a report that echoed some of C.D. Howe’s observations that core inflation was hard for people to understand.The 54-page report covered talks with 30 stakeholders, including academic researchers, think tanks, business groups, unions and private-sector economists. But the 198 Canadians across 11 cities who were also talked to said they are concerned about the cost of living and many indicated CPI did not align with their experiences.They said the headline inflation figure was low and questioned what was included in the basket of goods and services that Statistics Canada uses to calculate it.C.D. Howe isn’t the only one who has ideas for how the Bank of Canada could do things differently. National Bank of Canada, in a report earlier this month, said policymakers should add the unemployment rate to its list of projections in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.The Bank of Canada’s priority is price stability, keeping inflation as close to its two per cent target as possible. But its current framework, which is up for renewal this year, also said that “monetary policy should continue to support maximum sustainable employment.”There is a relationship between inflation and employment, so National Bank economists Warren Lovely, Stefane Marion and Matthieu Arseneau said it would be “helpful” to know what policymakers are thinking on the jobs front.Many central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, European Central Bank and Bank of England, provide unemployment forecasts.“It’s past time for the Bank of Canada to permanently incorporate the unemployment rate as part of the baseline economic forecast,” the economists said.— with a file from Paula Tran, Financial Post Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.As U.S. trade frictions continue to be the top risk to Canada’s economy, a new report says the “real opportunity” for growth lies in a combination of government investment and boosting businesses’ confidence to get capital flowing.Deloitte Canada’s summer economic outlook, released Thursday, forecasts growth of just 0.7 per cent this year before expanding to two per cent in 2027. — Jane Switzer, Financial PostRead the full story here.Today’s data: U.S. advance goods trade balance, retail and wholesale inventory, University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectationsEarnings: Corus Entertainment Inc., American Lithium Corp., K2 Gold Corp., Silver Spruce Resources Inc., NEO Battery Materials Ltd., Grande Portage Resources Ltd., Planet Green Metals Inc., Labrador Iron Mines Holding Ltd., Argyle Resrouces Corp., Northern Superior Resources Inc.This reader is currently working on a separation but says that she and her ex-husband are considering purchasing a second property together to avoid extreme degradation of their finances. She wants to know what are the pros and cons of doing this and what they should do to ensure the new property is split 50-50 at the time of sale? A divorce is likely to go through in a year or so and she wants some input on the co-mingling of their investments even after divorce. Keep reading here.Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Posthaste: Why the Bank of Canada should start publishing a forecast for interest rates
The Bank of Canada should start publishing an interest rate forecast as part of a suggested revamp of its inflation communications. Read on.






