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Or sign-in if you have an account.The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent this Wednesday, its fifth consecutive hold. Photo by Getty ImagesSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorLast time the Bank of Canada decided on interest rates, market expectations of hikes later this year shot up, as traders zeroed in on one word — “consecutive.”Governor Tiff Macklem’s mention of the possibility of “consecutive” rate increases in one scenario where oil prices climb higher prompted markets to up their bets to 2.5 hikes this year after the April meeting.Since then softer economic data and tamer inflation have lowered those bets to 1.5 hikes, but most economists still think the market is overshooting the mark.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again“Canada is in a technical recession, and the labour market remains soft with net job losses year to date, keeping the bar for hikes high, said Bank of America economist Carlos Capistran.“With inflation expectations likely to remain well anchored … we expect the BoC to stay on hold and recommend continuing to fade market pricing of BoC hikes.”The Bank of Canada’s next decision is this Wednesday and the central bank is widely expected to leave the rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent, its fifth consecutive hold. It’s on the path for the rest of the year where economists and markets diverge.Most of Canada’s big banks expect the central bank to keep the rate steady throughout this year, including Bank of Montreal, CIBC, Toronto Dominion and Royal Bank of Canada.Bank of Nova Scotia, however, is forecasting 50 basis points of hikes in the fourth quarter of 2026 and another in early 2027, bringing the rate to 3 per cent.“We’re the only shop in Canada that called the market move toward pricing hikes in 2026 forecasts dating back to last November,” said Derek Holt, head of Scotiabank Capital Markets Economics, in his note this morning.Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy for Desjardins Group, however, argues the market is mispriced, saying all signs point to a “classic demand shortfall in the economy.”In Desjardins’ view the data show that Bank of Canada no longer needs to be worried about a tradeoff between high inflation and low growth, and should focus on what is needed if demand deteriorates further.The risk of the upcoming Canada-United-States-Mexico-Agreement review is “under-appreciated,” said Mendes, as a negative outcome is the “single greatest risk to the Canadian economy.”It now looks likely that the three countries will not agree to a 16-year extension by the July 1 deadline — which while not a disaster, will extend the uncertainty hanging over the economy.With no move expected from the Bank of Canada Wednesday, observers will be watching policy makers’ language closely.Mendes said the bank should refrain from reiterating the need for “consecutive” rate increases, calling the last instance a “communications misstep.”“Traders should beware that the Bank of Canada has a history of misguiding markets,” he said.But Bank of America said “the BoC is biased to the hawkish side” and sees a risk of the market repricing in hikes after the bank’s press conference on the decision.BMO Capital Markets strategist Benjamin Reitzes expects the Bank of Canada to take a more balanced tone this time around.“It’s challenging to rationalize threatening consecutive hikes again given how the macro backdrop has evolved,” he said.Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.More Canadians are returning to the office, as remote work continues to decline, Statistics Canada’s latest jobs data showed.Canadians working outside the home rose to almost 79 per cent in May, up from 77 per cent in 2025 and 75 per cent in 2022.Those working exclusively at home dropped a full percentage point from last year to 11 per cent and are now down 7 percentage points from May 2022, when almost 19 per cent of employed Canadians worked from home.Hybrid work has stayed steady after rising from 6 per cent in May, 2022 to 10 per cent in May 2023.Apple Worldwide Developers Conference in Cupertino, California begins at 1 p.m.Earnings: The Campbell’s CompanyDefined-benefit (DB) plans have become revered as gold-plated pension perks, something reserved for the likes of public servants and a shrinking number of lucky private sector workers. But as stock market returns have soared in recent years, defined-contribution pensions (DC) have been staging a comeback. The Financial Post’s Garry Marr explains why DC plan holders are seeing their accounts grow, while more conservative defined benefit plans are left behind. Read moreInterested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. 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