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Or sign-in if you have an account.Bank of Canada could raise its rate as high as 3.25 per cent next year. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/PostmediaSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorOil’s wild price swings this summer have been playing havoc with central bank expectations.Crude prices soared to more than US$100 last week after the conflict between the United States and Iran flared up again — and with them rose market bets on interest rate hikes.A full hike was added to the outlook for the Bank of England and European Central Bank when the 30 per cent jump in oil prices over July raised the spectre of higher inflation, said National Bank of Canada strategists in a recent note.Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing its rate Wednesday crept up to 40 per cent at one point from as low as 10 per cent as price pressures mounted.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againOil prices have fallen back this week during a pause in hostilities with Brent crude oil easing to below US$86 today. But interest-rate swaps are still implying about a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point increase by the Fed tomorrow, reports Bloomberg — “an unusually high degree of uncertainty so close to a Fed decision.”The Bank of Canada, on the other hand, has remained largely untouched by this frenzy, with expectations of its policy rate in December rising just five basis points.“The relationship between oil prices and BoC policy expectations has weakened of late, while remaining strong elsewhere,” said the strategists.Energy prices do matter to Canada, they said. It’s just that at the moment they are being overshadowed by developments at home.A “somewhat dovish” central bank decision this month, cooler inflation data and Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats to Canada’s economy have kept expectations of a rate increase in the near term in check, they said.They haven’t been removed altogether, however — just pushed into next year.“Indeed, if market pricing proves accurate, the BoC could deliver more tightening than any other central bank in our advanced economy sample next year,” said the strategists Friday.National Bank is not convinced that the Bank of Canada will need to take its interest rate to the high end of the neutral range of 2.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent in 2027, as markets imply.It thinks the bank will begin tightening in the first quarter, raising rates to 2.75 per cent by the end of the year. That’s later than the path the markets are predicting, but earlier than the median private sector consensus that doesn’t expect hikes until the third quarter of 2027.A survey of Canada’s big six banks reveals a wide spread of expectations. CIBC, like National, is forecasting the Bank of Canada raises its rate to 2.75 per cent by the end of 2027, but Royal Bank of Canada predicts the rate will hit 3.25 per cent.Bank of Nova Scotia puts the policy rate finishing 2027 at 3 per cent, while Toronto Dominion and the Bank of Montreal see it unchanged at 2.25 per cent for all of next year.Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.Alberta’s proposed West Coast oil pipeline could expand Canada’s export capacity by close to 20 per cent, and more than double the volume of crude able to reach tidewater for overseas shipment, say economists with Toronto Dominion Bank.The pipeline, which is estimated to cost $35 to $44 billion, would have a capacity of roughly 1 million barrels a day. To put that in context, the Trans Mountain Expansion added about 590,000 bpd of capacity when it entered service in 2024, the economists said.The province has applied for its proposal to be designated as a project of national interest and a decision could come as early as Oct. 1.Today’s Data: United States Conference Board consumer confidenceEarnings: Great-West Lifeco Inc., Ford Motor Co., Coca-Cola Co., Boeing Co., Visa Inc., Intact Financial GroupInvestors have had plenty to worry about lately with the re-escalation in tariffs, the uncertainty surrounding AI capital spending and the upcoming wave of earnings releases. But Financial Post investing columnist Martin Pelletier says there is a bigger risk out there that they may be overlooking. Find out moreInterested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.