Skip to Content Subscribe Our Offers My Account Manage My Subscriptions FAQ Newsletters Canada Canadian True Crime Canadian Politics Health World Israel & Middle East Financial Post NP Comment Longreads Puzzmo Diversions Comics NP News Quiz New York Times Crossword Horoscopes Life Eating & Drinking Style Sponsored Play for Ontario Travel Travel Canada Travel USA Travel International Cruises Travel Essentials Culture Books Celebrity Movies Music Theatre Television Business Essentials Advice Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Buy Canadian Home Living Outdoor Living Kitchen & Dining Tech Style & Beauty Personal Care Entertainment & Hobbies Gift Guide Travel Guide Amazon Prime Day Deals Savings National Post Store More Sports Hockey Baseball Basketball Football Soccer Golf Tennis Driving Vehicle Research Reviews News Gear Guide Obituaries Place an Obituary Place an In Memoriam Classifieds Place an Ad Celebrations Working Business Ads Archives Healthing Epaper Manage Print Subscription Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ Newsletters Canada World Financial Post NP Comment Longreads Puzzmo Diversions Life Shopping Epaper Manage Print Subscription HomeNP CommentTasha Kheiriddin: Quebec the fly in the ointment to new U.S. trade dealCarney likely could secure a new agreement by dropping supply management, but that would have severe political implications in la belle province You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.Prime Minister Mark Carney, left, gives out ice creams during the fête Nationale Val-des-Monts celebration in Perkins, Que., on June 23. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/PostmediaTick, tick, tick. That’s the sound of the timer counting down to Aug. 19, the date on which U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on Canada will kick in. Or not. Already one former Trump advisor is predicting that Trump will TACO (Trump always chickens out), but in the unpredictable world we live in, there’s no guarantee.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorFaced with this deadline, the pressure is on Prime Minister Mark Carney to get a deal with the Americans. Businesses and investors are worried. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is demanding action. Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, and Janice Charette, our chief trade negotiator, are spending their summer in Washington boardrooms, but there’s still no sense of progress.As Carney has pointed out, he wants a good deal, not a fast deal. A good deal would presumably mean that Canada doesn’t have to make any major concessions — or at least not ones with major domestic blowback. Like, for instance, giving up supply management.The National Post newsletter that doesn’t hold back, giving readers the unvarnished truth on media, politics and culture.By signing up, you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Right? will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againCanada’s supply management system provides stable income to the country’s 9,000 dairy farms, but at a cost to Canada’s 40-million consumers. Canadian households pay an average of $244 more per year for dairy products, with the burden falling heaviest on low-income families. The system imposes production and import quotas and allows marketing boards to set prices, making it difficult for new dairy producers to compete and limiting product choice. It’s been the bane of economists for decades, with many calling for it to be phased out.Supply management is also one of Trump’s biggest pet peeves. While the president may not always get his facts straight, it is true that supply management rules discourage selling large quantities of American dairy products in Canada. It’s not clear whether we’d swap Oka cheese for Wisconsin cheddar if these rules were lifted, but Trump voters in that state would probably be very happy.You would think, then, that supply management would be a concession Canada would be prepared to make, both for its benefit and to help secure a deal. But you would be wrong. The dairy lobby is one of the most powerful in the country. Seventy-four per cent of Canadians say they support supply management to some degree, according to a recent poll. And over a third of Canada’s dairy production comes from Quebec.Quebec is a political hot spot this year. On Aug. 31, voters will go to the polls in a federal byelection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. The riding was Conservative until earlier this summer, when Carney appointed MP Richard Martel to the Senate. The Liberals want to flip the seat and are running Daniel Gobeil, former chair of the Quebec Milk Producers.After that, Carney will have to call byelections in two other soon-to-be vacant Quebec ridings, Laurier—Sainte-Marie and Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, both of which his party would like to keep out of the hands of the Bloc Québécois. On top of that, Quebecers will go to the polls in a general election no later than Oct. 5 — a contest in which the separatist Parti Québécois is on track to form a minority government.Sacrificing supply management to get a trade deal would put wind in the Bloc’s sails and jeopardize Liberal chances in those ridings. It would boost PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has promised to hold a referendum if he takes power. With a majority, he could do that, plunging Canada into a state of political and economic uncertainty.In other words, Carney must weigh the implications of not getting a trade deal if he clings to supply management, against the costs to his party and the country if he does. But as long as Canadians consider him their preferred prime minister, he’s got some breathing room. So expect him to rag the puck on a deal as long as he can, to avoid facing that painful choice.Postmedia NetworkTasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist. Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.