After around 50,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African territory of Ceuta, far-right politicians across Europe quickly branded the events an “invasion.” But with most migrants already returning to Morocco and UK illegal boat crossings dropping to a five-year low—down 43% compared to 2025—what is actually driving the debate around European border control?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Director of the Migration Observatory Madeleine Sumption, Director of Politics at Ipsos Keiran Pedley, and Austrian migration expert Gerald Knaus.

They discuss whether the incident in Ceuta could drive a new surge for the far-right across Europe, how the UK could be affected and if immigration is still the hot topic for voters.