Shimla, Jul 31 (ANI): Commuters wearing raincoats walk through heavy rain, in Shimla on Friday. (ANI Photo)
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India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecast "below normal" rain in August and during August-September period. It predicted quantitatively less than 94 per cent of the long period average rainfall during the second half of the monsoon.The weather bureau stuck to its earlier forecast of 90 per cent (or 781.74 mm) rainfall during the four-month season even though June-July recorded 13 per cent deficit. Sources said that even if there is “below normal" rain, the intensity of deficiency may not be high.“It may be close to around 93 per cent (or 393 mm) of its LPA of 422.8 mm in August-September, potentially easing pressure on many agriculture crops,” an official source said, adding that in a worst case scenario, it will not be less than 84 per cent.Strong El Nino in SeptCiting the progress of sowing so far, he said that the crops will sustain if there is regular rainfall even if quantity wise less. Until July 24, farmers have completed sowing in 71 per cent of normal area.According to the latest official data, country as a whole received 389.8 mm rainfall during June-July, which is 87 per cent of long period average (LPA) of 445.8 mm.Briefing media, IMD’s director-general M Mohapatra said that the moderate El Nino may continue in August, and it may move towards a ‘strong’ El Nino in September. Whereas the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn positive in September, he added, though IMD’s own MMCFS forecast indicates neutral IOD conditions to continue.IOD to the rescueExperts said that since a positive IOD normally helps higher rainfall during monsoon season, there is a possibility of IOD lessening the adverse impact of El Nino to a large extent. But, as July forecast could not be captured correctly due to development of a number of ‘low pressures’ it is too early to speculate how the rainfall could be in August. As many as 24 low pressure systems developed in July, the highest since 2017.“During August, below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country except some areas of north-west and north-east, east central India and the eastern peninsular region where normal to above normal rainfall is likely,” said IMD.According to the forecast map for August, coastal Tamil Nadu (from Sivaganga district towards north), most parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, south-west Odisha and its adjoining districts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, north-east parts of Madhya Pradesh and coastal West Bengal may receive normal to above normal precipitation.Mohapatra also said that the north interior Karnataka, which is the main pulses growing region, may receive normal or higher rains closely after July reported 1 per cent surplus due to recent rains.India’s north-west region, considered food bowl, may be deficient in August as indicated by the map. However, due to its wider base of irrigation, the crops may be spared from its impact.Published on July 31, 2026
