Maharashtra is likely to witness a mixed rainfall pattern during the month of August whereas below-normal rainfall is expected in September. Overall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal second half of the southwest monsoon (August-September) for Maharashtra in its latest seasonal outlook released on Friday. The virtual press conference for the same was addressed by Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of meteorology, IMD. As per the outlook, Marathwada and central Maharashtra are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in August while Konkan and Vidarbha may experience below-normal precipitation.While the IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole during August and September, the outlook for Maharashtra is not so straightforward. The state, which spans both central and peninsular India, falls under regions where rainfall is expected to vary, suggesting that monsoon activity is unlikely to be uniform across districts. The forecast indicates that parts of central India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, causing favourable conditions for Vidarbha and parts of Marathwada. However, other parts of Maharashtra could witness below-normal rainfall spells, making the overall outlook one of spatially uneven monsoon distribution rather than widespread surplus rainfall. The IMD has not issued a district-wise forecast for Maharashtra. The IMD has also forecast that maximum temperatures over parts of central India may remain normal or below normal, while minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal during August.According to Mohapatra, the evolving El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean are expected to strengthen during the remaining monsoon season, which could influence rainfall variability. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain neutral through most of the season, with some global models indicating a possible shift to a positive phase in September.Explaining the unusual rainfall pattern in July, Mohapatra said that although the weather agency had forecast below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole, three states including Maharashtra, Gujarat and Odisha, emerged as exceptions, recording significantly higher rainfall, contrary to model projections. Mohapatra attributed the anomaly to the formation of four low-pressure systems (LPSs) over the head Bay of Bengal in July, two of which intensified into depressions. These systems brought widespread rainfall over east-central and west-central India, including Maharashtra. He noted that the total number of LPS days during the month stood at 24, nearly double the climatological normal of 13.5 days, resulting in enhanced monsoon activity across the region. He also said that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rainfall in the tropics remained in its favourable phase 6 during the early part of July, supporting active monsoon conditions. However, the MJO shifted to an unfavourable phase later in the month, reducing its influence on rainfall. Meanwhile, Maharashtra experienced 40% excess rainfall in July this year. As per IMD rainfall data, the state received 454.2 mm rainfall against the normal rainfall of 324.2 mm. Among the districts, Nashik emerged as the wettest district in July with 169% excess rainfall. While Pune district with 709.5 mm rainfall against the normal rainfall of 310.2 mm received 129% excess rainfall in July. With 27% rainfall deficit, Sindhudurg remained the driest district in July this year.