Five months of military conflict between the US and Iran have produced exactly the kind of oil market chaos you’d expect, followed by something you wouldn’t: relative calm. Brent crude, which rocketed from roughly $71 to somewhere between $100 and $120 per barrel after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed in early March, has since retreated to the $75-$83 range.
That’s a remarkable correction for a commodity tied to a waterway responsible for roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day.
How the conflict moved oil markets
Here’s the timeline. US and Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian targets in late February 2026. Brent crude jumped more than 8% almost immediately. Then Iran escalated dramatically on March 4, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to traffic.
Prices predictably surged past $100 per barrel. Some estimates put the peak closer to $120. The US responded by implementing political risk insurance for maritime trade through the region, essentially backstopping shippers willing to navigate contested waters.
