https://ecfr.eu/article/the-paradox-of-intervention-how-us-strikes-in-yemen-empowered-the-houthis/
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have issued threats that could disrupt global energy markets, intensifying the civil conflict and potentially blocking key regional waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This critical passage handles nearly 12% of global seaborne trade and 8.8 million barrels of oil daily. The threats follow recent escalations, including an attempted landing of an Iranian aircraft at Sanaa airport and a reported Saudi airstrike. The situation has sparked some of the deadliest clashes since a 2022 UN-brokered truce. With Iran allegedly instructing the Houthis to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. targets Iranian infrastructure, markets are closely watching for potential ramifications on global shipping and oil prices.
Key Takeaways
Market pricing suggests increased concern over potential Houthi attacks on shipping, with odds for successful targeting by August 31 rising to 50%.
The threat of disruption in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could indicate a “double chokepoint” crisis, affecting both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
