Houthis threaten to disrupt oil shipping amid escalating conflict. Targeting shipping by August 31 at 50% YES.

Houthis closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening 60% of Middle East oil exports. Closure by September 30 at 17.5% YES.

If the fighting in Yemen expands, and the Houthis try to block the Bab al-Mandeb, the world economy faces a new shock.