New York Fed President John Williams offered a notably calm assessment of the US economy’s ability to absorb geopolitical turbulence, stating that the country has handled Middle East conflict risks “fairly well so far.” Williams’ comments were delivered on June 25, 2026.
The numbers behind the confidence
Williams projected US GDP growth of between 2% and 2.5% for the year, even with the Middle East conflict creating headwinds through energy markets and supply chains.
In follow-up remarks on July 9, 2026, Williams went further, stating that he does not forecast sustained energy price increases for the remainder of the year. Temporary energy price pops are manageable for an economy this size. Sustained ones are what force the Fed into aggressive rate hikes that crush demand and crater asset prices.
Williams also stressed that the Fed’s existing policy framework is equipped to handle the dual risks of employment disruption and price instability that geopolitical conflicts tend to create.
