Key Facts — Ibovespa
The August Copom decision is a live wager between a fourth straight 25bp cut to 14.00% and a hold at 14.25%, with the rate path constrained by inflation expectations that have drifted above the 4.50% target ceiling.
Today’s June IPCA print is the marquee data point for that decision, carrying a consensus of roughly 0.31% month-on-month, enough to bring the 12-month rate down but still leave it near 4.8%, above the tolerance band.
The BCB’s weekly Focus survey has become critical, with the median 2026 IPCA forecast recently lifted to 4.80%, a hawkish signal that is capping how far traders can price the easing cycle.
Homebuilders such as CURY3 and MRVE3 are the clearest on-screen proxies for the Selic path, set to rally on any disinflation surprise or come under immediate pressure if expectations of terminal Selic at 13.00% firm up.
