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Everything today hangs on one number — the full June IPCA at 12:00 BRT, the release that turns the abstract easing debate into a hard August wager.
Two soft mid-month readings have already nudged traders toward pricing a fourth quarter-point Selic cut, and a benign composition today would cement it. The real, at 5.1161 per dollar, is the cleanest expression of that bet.
The domestic-rate names carry the signal. Magazine Luiza’s 7.8% surge and Raia Drogasil’s 4.7% gain on heavy turnover show where the easing trade is concentrating — watch them at the open for confirmation or a fade.
