Key Facts
The Selic wager is cementing, with traders pricing a near-certain cut at next week’s Copom meeting after the mid-July inflation preview came in at a whisper-quiet 0.06%, half the expected pace and a clear signal disinflation has legs.
Today’s fiscal health check is the main event, as the Treasury drops its primary budget balance and debt-to-GDP figures at 11:30 BRT, the first hard data to either soothe or stoke the market’s nagging anxiety about public spending months before a presidential election.
Producer prices will reveal the pipeline, with the June PPI due at midday expected to show a sharp monthly jump to 0.5% from a prior contraction, a critical read on whether factory-gate costs are turning sticky even as consumer inflation cools.
Global calm is providing a gentle tailwind, as a benign overnight session in Asia and a steady yen after the Bank of Japan held rates firm are barely rippling the pond, letting local B3 traders focus squarely on the domestic story.
