Key Facts
The Selic rate currently sits at 14.25%, with traders pricing a shallow easing path and the August Copom meeting seen as a close call between a 25bp cut and a pause, constrained by election-year uncertainty and sticky inflation expectations.
Today’s IGP-10 wholesale inflation index is expected to deepen its deflation, with a consensus of -1.0% month-on-month versus a prior -0.3%, a print that could reinforce disinflation hopes and boost rate-sensitive stocks if confirmed.
The Brazilian real is trading near the psychological 5.10 floor against the dollar, with a break below 5.0990 seen as a signal of renewed strength that would add a tailwind to the B3 by easing imported inflation fears.
Exchange operator B3SA3 remains a key name to watch, having reported a record R$1.5 billion profit in Q1 2026 on surging foreign inflows, making it a direct proxy for the volume boost that rate cuts can bring to equity markets.
