Key Facts
The August Copom debate is the market’s sole focus this morning pitting the case for a fourth straight 25bp cut against a pause with the Selic at 14.25% and the IPCA 2026 expectation stuck above the 4.5% ceiling.
Today’s Focus survey release will instantly reprice August rate-cut odds with any further upward creep in the year-end IPCA forecast likely to stiffen the hawkish case and cap rate-sensitive sectors from the opening bell.
The Ibovespa is indicated lower after futures tracked a weak US tape overnight with the index’s 170,000 handle emerging as the line in the sand that local desks are watching for the open.
Petrobras and Vale together dominated turnover in the prior session making the oil and iron-ore heavyweights the rudders for the index if commodity prices move on the Beige Book or EIA inventory data later in the day.
