Today’s Focus
The Brazilian market opens this Monday with the Copom’s August decision already dominating the pre-market conversation. The committee cut the Selic to 14.25% in June but used its minutes to deliberately blur the outlook, warning of “scenarios of pauses and resumption in cuts”. That language has fractured the consensus: a Reuters poll before June showed 19 of 31 economists expecting another 25bp reduction in August, yet Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos now believes the easing cycle is paused until the fourth quarter.
The repricing turns on inflation expectations, which is why the BCB Focus Market Readout at 11:25 BRT is the session’s marquee event. The last survey showed end-2026 IPCA forecasts stubbornly above target at 4.31%, and any further drift higher would embolden the hawkish wing of the Copom and push rate-cut bets further out.
Elsewhere, the real is steady around 5.11 to the dollar, benefiting from a wider carry advantage as US rates soften. For equities, the three-day losing streak on the Ibovespa has been gentle in magnitude—the index closed Friday at 173,714—but the lack of a bounce leaves the door open to a test of the 172,000 support if the Focus report disappoints.
