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Or sign-in if you have an account.People walk south on Bay Street in Toronto's financial district. Statistics Canada will release job numbers for June on Friday, July 10. Photo by Peter J. Thompson /Financial PostSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorJob growth in Canada could almost flatline and it still wouldn’t affect the national unemployment rate because of population declines, though the story differs on a province-by-province basis, says Toronto-Dominion Bank.“Canada’s job market is entering a new phase,” Marc Ercolao, an economist at TD, said in report on July 8, two days before the June Labour Force Survey is released by Statistics Canada.TD estimated that to hold the national unemployment rate steady — “breakeven employment growth” — the number of new jobs needed on a monthly basis is close to zero since federal immigration cuts have reduced Canada’s population over the past few quarters for the first time on record.Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. 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Please try againHowever, Ercolao said a national near-zero growth rate “masks” major differences from province to province.“In some provinces, labour forces are already shrinking,” he said. “In others, migration and younger demographics continue to expand the pool of available workers.”For example, the amount of hiring needed to hold unemployment rates steady in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec has “sharply” fallen, with Ercolao estimating that those provinces could lose 11,000, 13,000 and 36,000 positions, respectively, without triggering a higher jobless rate.“This marks a sharp reversal from their historical pattern of steady job growth,” he said.He said the decline in population growth in the three provinces is the main reason for the change. He also expects the provinces’ workforces to shrink this year because of the loss of younger working-age temporary immigrants.Meanwhile, Alberta will need to add 56,000 positions this year to keep a lid on the unemployment rate, TD said, because the province continues to record the highest rate of people moving there from other parts of Canada, while a younger population implies that the workforce will continue to grow.“Alberta’s breakeven threshold is meaningfully higher,” Ercolao said. “That limits how far its unemployment rate can fall, even with solid hiring.”Several other provinces, including Saskatchewan and Manitoba, are forecasted to add jobs above their breakeven points recorded prior to the pandemic.The Prairie workforce is expected to expand nearly two per cent in 2026 and Atlantic Canada’s could grow almost one per cent compared against “national stagnation,” TD said.Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to mirror its historical pace of job growth, recording a flat breakeven, TD said.“As labour force growth stalls, national employment reports are becoming harder to interpret,” Ercolao said, adding that the Bank of Canada has already cautioned that labour force data needs to be interpreted with care.Statistics Canada releases June’s job numbers on July 10 and analysts are calling for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.6 per cent and for the economy to add 10,000 positions.In May, Canada added 87,800 net new positions, blowing past economist estimates. Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.Initial public offerings have been one of the biggest themes in financial markets on both sides of the border so far this year, with Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. completing the largest IPO in history and drugmaker Apotex Health Corp. having the biggest IPO in Canada since 2021.The gap between the two deals is enormous, but bankers and lawyers advising Canadian dealmakers are encouraged to see IPOs returning to Canada after a prolonged slowdown between 2022 and 2024. Overall, Canada’s financial sector raised about $376 billion through 586 deals in the first six months of 2026, up 21.5 per cent from the $309.3 billion raised in the first half of 2025, according to Financial Post Data. The strong start puts the sector on track to surpass the $597 billion recorded in 2025, the highest annual total since 2010. — Naimul Karim, Financial PostKeep reading here.Today’s Data: U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims, existing home sales.Earnings: Richelieu Hardware Ltd., Velan Inc., Aritzia Inc., PepsiCo Inc.This 53-year-old single woman wants to retire in two years. She is debt free, owns her Nova Scotia home and has built an investment portfolio worth just over $1 million. Her target monthly income in retirement is $4,500 before tax — similar to her current monthly cash flow needs. She wonders: Is this realistic? Keep reading FP Answers here to find out more.Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors.Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? 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