Economics
Apr 6, 2026
Morten Nyboe Tabor
Much of the forecasting profession—and the economic theory that underpins it—still defaults to single baselines that treat the future as a probabilistic replica of the past. But when the structure of the economy changes in unforeseeable ways, as it is now, forecasters must acknowledge that many futures are possible.
COPENHAGEN—The war in Iran has upended the global economic outlook overnight. Oil supply routes have been shut down and prices have surged. Every central bank, finance ministry, and economic forecaster is scrambling to answer the same question: What happens next?
