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During the Cold War between the US-led capitalist Western bloc and the Soviet-led communist Eastern bloc, political leaders constantly needed to anticipate their adversary’s next move. Professional futurology emerged to meet that need. One of its most famous successes was Moore’s law, a statistical observation of past and present trends in computing power that allowed remarkably accurate predictions about the future.
Today, however, the pace of change is so rapid that there seems little room for the likes of Arthur C. Clarke, Marshall McLuhan, Buckminster Fuller or Alvin Toffler — futurists who thrived when technological and socioeconomic shifts unfolded over years rather than months. Predictions about the coming capabilities of artificial intelligence alone are so mind-boggling that many people hope they are just speculation. Yet AI is only one part of a much larger picture.
Genetics and gene therapy are redefining medicine. Space science is pushing the boundaries with each new rocket and telescope. Breakthroughs in smart mobility, energy storage and computing power now occur so frequently that they can feel almost routine.
Only a few decades ago, such developments would have been fodder for Isaac Asimov science fiction novels or BBC programs hosted by Clarke. Today, announcements of revolutionary progress are often buried under geopolitical headlines or hidden behind paywalls. Important innovations — whether promising or perilous — struggle to hold public attention in an age of fragmented media and shortened attention spans.
