Long before the founders of Kalshi and Polymarket were even born, a handful of economists were getting amped about a novel approach to dealing with one of humanity’s more egregious shortcomings: We’re bad at predicting the future.
Kalshi e Polymarket (miliardi di volume mensile) operano al 84-99% su scommesse sportive, tradendo l'intenzione accademica originaria (forecasting economico + wager capped ~$3k/anno). Il divario fra vision e outcome reale segnala rischi compliance: governi potrebbero riclassificare gli event contracts da strumenti finanziari a gambling, con impatto regolatorio su piattaforme e trader.
Economists in the 1980s envisioned prediction markets as tools for forecasting elections and economic events, not sports betting.
The multibillion-dollar industry has strayed far from its academic origins, sparking debate about public health costs.
Academics thought the market shouldn't include sports betting, but that now dominates on predictions platforms.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
New York —
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