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Economists have long pushed for prediction markets. The reality is not what they’d hoped for | CNN Business

Long before the founders of Kalshi and Polymarket were even born, a handful of economists were getting amped about a novel approach to dealing with one of humanity’s more egregious shortcomings: We’re bad at predicting the future.

Raccontata dawired.comedition.cnn.com

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2 prospettive sulla stessa storia
AI · summaries
edition.cnn.comStai leggendo22 h fa

Economists have long pushed for prediction markets. The reality is not what they’d hoped for | CNN Business

Kalshi e Polymarket (miliardi di volume mensile) operano al 84-99% su scommesse sportive, tradendo l'intenzione accademica originaria (forecasting economico + wager capped ~$3k/anno). Il divario fra vision e outcome reale segnala rischi compliance: governi potrebbero riclassificare gli event contracts da strumenti finanziari a gambling, con impatto regolatorio su piattaforme e trader.

originale
wired.com2 g fa

Prediction Market Philosophers Got What They Wanted. They’re Not Happy About It

Kalshi and Polymarket scaled to billions via sports betting, contradicting the truth-seeking mission—founders now worry. Research confirms gambling-like design and insider-trading risks; regulatory backlash looms if politics shift, threatening sector viability.

Timeline cronologica

  1. venerdì 19 giugno 2026·wired.com

    Prediction Market Philosophers Got What They Wanted. They’re Not Happy About It

    Getting the future right is now big business. But at a festival in Berkeley, forecasters worry that sports markets could take the whole industry down.

  2. domenica 21 giugno 2026·edition.cnn.com

    Economists have long pushed for prediction markets. The reality is not what they’d hoped for | CNN Business

    Long before the founders of Kalshi and Polymarket were even born, a handful of economists were getting amped about a novel approach to dealing with one of humanity’s more…

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