While the tech world obsesses over GPU supply chains and chip export controls, a far more mundane piece of equipment is quietly strangling the buildout of AI infrastructure worldwide. Power transformers, devices whose basic design dates back to the 1880s, have become the unexpected chokepoint in the global race to scale artificial intelligence.
Here’s the thing about power transformers: they step voltage up or down so electricity can travel long distances and then be safely delivered to buildings, factories, and yes, data centers. Without them, nothing plugs in. Nothing turns on.
Lead times for power transformers have ballooned to as long as five years, according to Financial Times reporting. Before 2020, you could expect delivery in about 24 to 30 months. Demand for these devices has surged approximately 119% since 2019. The US, which imports around 80% of its power transformers, is projected to face a 30% deficit in distribution transformers by 2025.
Nearly half of planned US data center projects slated for 2026, roughly 140 projects representing about 12 GW of capacity, are at risk of delays or outright cancellations.
Global data center capacity is projected to reach 220 GW by 2030, roughly six times the levels seen in 2020. Electricity consumption for data centers alone could land somewhere between 945 TWh and 1,400 TWh by 2030.
