Key Facts
The July 15 US tariff deadline is the clock over every exporter with Washington’s proposed 25% Section 301 duty on Brazilian goods now past its July 6 hearing and awaiting a final call, Vale, Petrobras and the meat names carry the risk premium into the open.
Selic sits at 14.25% after a third straight quarter-point cut and the Focus survey pencils a 14% year-end rate, leaving the 5 August Copom meeting as the market’s live wager on whether one last trim lands.
IGP-DI wholesale inflation prints at 11:00 BRT the day’s first read on producer-price pressure ahead of August’s decision, against a prior 0.87%, a hot number would sharpen the hawkish case.
Auto sales and production data land midday with new-car sales seen near −7% and output around −13%, a blunt test of how far domestic demand is cooling into the second half.
