Global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) now expects the price of Brent crude oil to average $78/bl in 2027 and potentially ease to $70/bl by the fourth quarter of 2027.
This forecast follows on the back of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed to between the US and Iran in recent days, paving the way for shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
WoodMac notes that Brent crude oil averaged $92/bl over the first half of this year, supported by elevated prices from March to May, and investor sentiment has since moved swiftly and favourably.
In the four weeks to June 16, positioning for higher Brent prices fell by about 80% from a five-year high, and WoodMac’s vessel tracking data has revealed that ships of all categories transiting the Strait of Hormuz reached a peak of 35 on June 18, up from the low teens each day but still well short of pre-war levels.
The consultancy notes that the revised forecast of $78/bl in 2027, and a potential $70/bl by the fourth quarter of 2027, assume that transit flows through the strait would normalise throughout August.
