Macquarie Group just took a cleaver to its oil price outlook, cutting Brent crude forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 as the bank expects a wave of new supply from the Middle East to flood the market. The revision drops its 2026 Brent target to $80 per barrel, down from $90, and brings its 2027 average to $75 per barrel from a previous estimate of $80.
Wall Street’s oil bears are multiplying
Macquarie is far from alone in its pessimism. Goldman Sachs has landed on nearly identical numbers, revising its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel and its 2027 average to $75 per barrel.
Then there is Citi, which is even more aggressive on the downside. The bank now projects Brent crude will average just $65 per barrel in 2027, down from its previous forecast of $80. That is a 19% cut, and it puts Citi $10 below where Macquarie and Goldman see the market heading.
The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints, is central to these revised outlooks. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through that narrow waterway. A potential US-Iran agreement is the geopolitical variable these banks are pricing in, with the prospect of Iranian crude re-entering global markets at scale adding barrels to an already well-supplied market.
