Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its 2027 average Brent oil price forecast to $80/bbl, citing stronger supply growth and persistent demand weakness, even as it warned prices could swing sharply under different geopolitical scenarios.
The bank highlighted rising output from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE, alongside structural demand shifts, particularly in China.
"We assume that just over 10% of the demand weakness persists as China's shift to alternatives accelerates," Goldman said in a note.
The bank also said it continues to expect Brent to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, noting that the impact of a longer disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has so far been offset by a smaller-than-expected supply shortfall.
While the Hormuz disruption initially cut Middle East liquids production sharply, Goldman said the global deficit in the second quarter was more limited, estimated at five-million to six-million barrels a day, as weaker demand and pre-existing oversupply cushioned the shock.
