The recent escalation in geopolitical tensions has put the oil markets on high alert, with the US president’s latest threat coinciding with a notable rise in oil prices. Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that Brent crude could surge to $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist into the fourth quarter. The oil benchmark has already climbed to $91 a barrel amid the ongoing conflict, which has lasted nearly five months.
The prediction of a potential spike in Brent crude comes at a time when Goldman Sachs has already adjusted its 2026 Brent forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel, reflecting heightened risks in the market. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, remains a focal point of concern, as any prolonged disruption could severely impact oil supply routes. Current market pricing suggests participants are closely monitoring these geopolitical developments, with implications for WTI crude oil prices.
Market data indicates a significant shift in expectations, with a notable increase in the probability of WTI crude hitting $90 in July, currently priced at 45.1% YES. This aligns with the broader sentiment that ongoing tensions may sustain elevated oil prices, particularly if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved.
