MOSCOW, June 16. /TASS/. Brent crude prices are unlikely to fall below $70 per barrel after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while a reasonable price range through the end of the year could be $70-75 per barrel, Research Director at Implementa Maria Belova told TASS.
"The finalization of the deal scheduled for June 19 increases the likelihood of further declines in Brent prices. If Middle Eastern oil supplies return quickly, a reasonable target range through the end of the year would be $70-75 per barrel. A deeper decline is unlikely without additional excess supply or a significant cooling in demand," Belova said.
According to her, the first scenario is unlikely because almost no producers have the capacity to rapidly increase output, while the second is constrained by the need to replenish strategic reserves both in member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and in China, which could generate additional demand of around 1 mln barrels per day.
Belova also noted that physical supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could begin recovering within several weeks, although full restoration would take between six months and one and a half years.
"As for the damaged LNG plant in Qatar, which accounts for 17% of the country's production capacity, or about 13 mln tons, its restoration will take between three and five years, according to official statements by representatives of QatarEnergy," she added.
