The US just opened the door for Iranian oil to flow legally onto global markets. China was already standing on the other side, waiting.
On June 22, 2026, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License X, a temporary sanctions waiver permitting the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil and petrochemicals for 60 days. The license expires on August 21, 2026, and it’s tied to broader diplomatic efforts around Iran’s nuclear program.
China currently absorbs approximately 90% of all Iranian crude exports. Asian refiners outside of China have signaled limited interest in stepping up purchases, citing adequate existing stockpiles and the compliance headaches that come with touching sanctioned oil, even when a temporary license says it’s fine.
A waiver without many takers
As of late March 2026, more than 150 million barrels of oil were reportedly en route to China. Some estimates place that figure closer to 161 million barrels.
