First, a quick recap of what the US-Iran MoU means. Iran’s regime is intact — and its nuclear programme is where it was in June last year — and has wrested major economic (a possible future charge on ships passing through Hormuz Strait; a $300 billion reconstruction fund from other West Asian countries; defreezing of its foreign accounts) and geopolitical (Israel will have to hold its hand against Iran’s proxies in the region) concessions. The Trump administration can spin this any way it wants, but the US has not won this war. Its partner Israel had ended up with a bloody nose. Many of Iran’s neighbours have suffered collateral damage — and will now enter a new period of chaos, without the US security umbrella.For the third time in six years, global supply chains have come under threat, and India would do well to prepare for the next crisis. (AFP)For years, Iran’s only currency in the region has been chaos, and that seems to have worked well for it in this war too — the costs levied on other West Asian countries, and the global economy, became too high for the war to continue. It’s very likely that the two-phase peace deal will see a successful first one and a long drawn out second one. The track record of previous Iran-US talks suggests that.India has suffered from the war. Its energy and fertiliser markets have been hit by shortages, and its problems have been exacerbated by a weakening currency. Some Indian nationals have been killed in West Asia, including three sailors by US firing, and India’s response to US brazenness has been tepid and recognises the power asymmetry between the two countries. After all, India is no real position to strong-arm the US into anything — and wants a favourable trade deal and access to technology.For the third time in six years, global supply chains have come under threat, and India would do well to prepare for the next crisis. It needs to de-risk its energy requirements (this is the time to throw the kitchen sink at all projects in the pipeline, renewable, coal gassification, green hydrogen and nuclear). It needs to shore up its capital account by becoming an attractive destination for investments . And it needs to build some real muscle — economic and military.