Polymarket’s Iran-related prediction markets have become the platform’s biggest draw, with the flagship “US strikes Iran by…?” contract alone accumulating over $529 million in total volume by March 1, 2026. The surge didn’t happen in a vacuum. Escalating US-Iran military tensions in late February drove a frenzy of speculative activity, with sub-market trading volumes hitting $89.6 million on February 28 alone. Polymarket’s weekly volumes exceeded $425 million in early March, turning the platform into something resembling a real-time geopolitical sentiment engine.
The insider trading problem no one can ignore
On-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified clusters of newly created wallets that appeared to time their bets with uncanny precision, placing wagers immediately before key announcements about strikes and ceasefires. Those wallet clusters recorded profits between $1 million and $1.2 million.
By May 2026, Congress took notice. Lawmakers initiated probes targeting Polymarket specifically over concerns that insider trading involving government and military events was occurring on the platform. The investigations are focused on whether individuals with access to classified or privileged information about US military operations used prediction markets to profit from that knowledge.
