Nine wallets. A 98% win rate. Over $2.4 million in profits from bets on US military operations against Iran. If that sounds too good to be true, federal investigators apparently agree.
Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market that became a cultural phenomenon during the 2024 election cycle, is now at the center of a rapidly escalating insider trading investigation. The platform has referred over 90 accounts to law enforcement and shared more than 315 wallet details with authorities.
The case that changed everything
On April 23, 2026, US Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in what appears to be the first federal insider trading case ever linked to a prediction market. According to the charges, Van Dyke used classified information to place bets on Polymarket’s geopolitics contracts, pocketing approximately $410,000 in profits.
Analytics firms Bubblemaps and Polysights identified the suspicious cluster of nine wallets that collectively racked up that eye-popping 98% win rate on Iran-related bets.
