Nine accounts on Polymarket have collectively earned over $2.4 million from more than 80 bets on US military operations involving Iran, hitting a 98% win rate. The finding, uncovered by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, was featured on CBS’s 60 Minutes and adds fuel to an already blazing debate about whether prediction markets have become a playground for people with access to classified information.
The accounts in question placed bets at high odds just before critical geopolitical events unfolded. Bubblemaps identified additional clusters of accounts beyond the initial nine. One group pulled in $1.4 million on an April 2026 Iran ceasefire bet. Another netted over $600,000 by correctly timing a June 2025 strike.
Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of Bubblemaps, stated that the insider trading potential in these accounts exceeds that of the already-indicted Van Dyke case.
The total volume of bets placed on Polymarket related to US military actions in Iran and Venezuela has surpassed $1 billion in 2026 alone.
The Van Dyke indictment set the stage
