Prediction markets were supposed to be the wisdom of crowds, distilled into probabilities and priced in real time. But when a cluster of anonymous wallets starts winning 98% of their bets on Iranian war policy, the crowd starts looking less wise and more like someone who read the answer key.
Polymarket’s geopolitics category has ballooned to roughly $5 billion in total volume year-to-date through mid-June 2026, with Iran-related contracts alone exceeding $2 billion in the first four months of the year. April was the peak month, with the geopolitics category hitting over $1.5 billion in volume.
The numbers behind the boom
Iran-related bets on Polymarket averaged 8.4% daily volume growth in March alone. A market titled “US strikes Iran by…?” attracted over $529 million in volume. A separate contract centered on a prospective US-Iran peace deal crossed $479 million by mid-June.
The wallets that win too much
