The government just moved up the deadline on one of America’s most predictable crises. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, the backbone of Social Security retirement benefits, is now expected to exhaust its reserves by the fourth quarter of 2032. That’s one quarter earlier than last year’s projection.
Once that happens, the program would only be able to pay 78% of scheduled benefits.
The numbers, and why they got worse
The 2026 Trustees Reports, released on June 9, lay out the financial trajectory for both Social Security and Medicare. Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, which covers Part A hospital benefits, is projected to deplete by the second quarter of 2033. After that point, it could cover just 89% of scheduled benefits.
Looking at Social Security more broadly, the combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance trust funds are expected to hit zero in the third quarter of 2034. Post-depletion, only 83% of benefits would be payable from ongoing tax revenue.
