The government entity that pays retirement benefits to tens of millions of Americans is running out of money faster than previously expected. The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released on June 9, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be depleted by the fourth quarter of 2032.
That’s one quarter earlier than last year’s estimate. When the fund hits zero, incoming payroll tax revenue will only cover roughly 78% of scheduled benefits, meaning retirees could see their checks shrink by more than a fifth overnight.
Why the clock sped up
Two main culprits are driving the accelerated timeline: the 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and declining immigration projections.
The tax law, signed by President Trump, reduced revenues collected from the taxation of Social Security benefits. In English: the government collects less money from taxing the benefits it pays out, which means fewer dollars flowing back into the trust fund.
