S&P 500 futures edged up roughly 0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained around 0.7% in early trading on June 17, as Wall Street collectively held its breath ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest rate decision.
This isn’t just any FOMC meeting. It’s the first one with Kevin Warsh sitting in the chair that Jerome Powell occupied for years. And while the consensus expectation is that the federal funds rate will stay parked at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, the real action will come from whatever Warsh says afterward.
The rate hold everyone expects
Markets have essentially priced in a non-event on the rate front. The 3.50%-3.75% target range has held firm through multiple meetings now, and persistent inflation pressures have made the Fed’s path toward easing look more like a winding mountain road than a straightforward highway.
But here’s the thing. A rate hold isn’t really neutral. Every meeting where the Fed doesn’t cut is a meeting where tighter-than-desired liquidity conditions persist. That distinction matters enormously for risk assets, and it matters even more for crypto.
