US futures are attempting to bounce back from yesterday’s losses on Wall Street led by Tech. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures lead the charge, with gains of 0.5% versus 0.1% for the S&P 500 future, although both are off session highs. SpaceX’s post-IPO surge continues, with shares adding another 3% in the pre-market while Mag 7 are mixed: NVDA is up 0.4%, while GOOGL is down 0.5%. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, while the MSCI APAC Index gained 0.5% in mixed trade for regional bourses. Overnight, headlines were largely muted: US retail sales print and earnings from Jabil and CarMax come before the open, but the real action comes later, with attention focused on the Fed and Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as governor. Bond markets have mirrored some of this choppiness with the exception of gilts, which have been boosted by soft UK CPI metrics. US yields are down 1bp across the curve ahead of Kevin Warsh’s debut as FOMC Chair. The dollar is mixed versus peers. The krona is a touch weaker after the Riksbank held rates as expected. Bitcoin is down 1.3%. Commodities are mostly flat to modestly lower: oil prices have been choppy as investors await the formal signing of the US-Iran peace accord on Friday and financial details of the agreement emerge. WTI crude futures are little changed around $76/bbl.In premarket trading, SpaceX rises 1.9% to eye a fourth straight day of gains, reinforcing the company’s place among the world’s largest after it surpassed Amazon by market value. Nvidia is outperforming Magnificent 7 peers with semiconductor shares set for a rebound (Nvidia +0.2%, Amazon unchanged, Apple -0.1%, Tesla -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%)Figma Inc. (FIG) is up 4.2% after Citi initiated coverage of the design software company with a recommendation of buy on expected growth from artificial intelligence demand.La-Z-Boy (LZB) jumps 16% after the home furniture store’s reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter beat the average analyst estimate.ResMed (RMD) slips 1% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing lower revenue growth ahead for the maker of breathing machines.Rexford Industrial (REXR) is down 1.4% after JPMorgan analyst Michael Mueller cut the recommendation on the real estate investment trust to underweight from neutral, writing that it’s possible the company will see “muted” or even negative growth in 2028 in core funds from operations per share.In other corporate news, Amazon is said to be facing a possible lawsuit from the US FTC that may lead to billions of dollars in civil penalties, over claims the e-commerce giant misled advertisers. Kuaishou Technology is in discussions with General Atlantic to lead a first round of financing for its video AI arm, Kling AI, ahead of an IPO.SpaceX shares are poised for a fourth straight day of gains, rising 3.1% in premarket trading. SpaceX may have made headlines for overtaking Amazon’s market cap on Tuesday, but it will take time to catch up on capex spending, or revenue as this Bloomberg chart shows.Turning to today's main event - Kevin Warsh's first Fed decision - we noted in our FOMC preview that while rates are expected to be left where they are, investors will be looking to see which Warsh shows up for his first press conference as chair: Trump's advocate for lower rates, or the inflation hawk seen around the global financial crisis. The swaps market is not fully pricing in a 25-basis-point hike until March next year, but Warsh is expected to remove the Fed’s “easing bias” today as inflationary pressure builds. Investors remain divided on the Fed’s next move, with forecasts ranging from rate cuts to multiple increases over the coming year. Oil has slumped on expectations a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will boost supply and ease inflation pressures, prompting investors to reassess the outlook for global interest rates on Fed day. Ahead of the Fed decision, OIS contracts price in around 20bp of tightening by the end of the year. Option traders have been hedging a range of outcomes for Fed policy this year and in early 2027, from cuts to multiple hikes. “We’re all poised for a hawkish, ready-to-fight inflation Warsh,” Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “What happens if he comes out and he’s a lot more dovish?”JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke highlights that two of Warsh’s primary criticisms of the Fed are its expansive balance sheet and over-communication. The communication includes the Summary of Economic Projections, commonly known as the dot plot. “The forecasts are terrible,” notes O’Rourke. Markets are also watching for changes in Fed communications under Warsh. Bloomberg Economics expects the new chair to forgo submitting his own interest-rate projection to the closely watched dot plot, a break from the practice followed by Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke.“Warsh faces a formidable challenge, striking a balance between President Trump’s desire for lower rates and signalling to the market that he is a credible and independent Fed chair,” said Bank J Safra Sarasin equity strategist Wolf von Rotberg. “Inflationary pressures in the US are unlikely to abate quickly. Solid growth and elevated core inflation suggest a hawkish bias, regardless of oil prices.”On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran are preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland. Still, governments, energy investors and shipping companies remain cautious about how quickly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal.Turning to politics, at the G7 meeting in France, AI is in focus with bosses of OpenAI and Anthropic in attendance. Cut-off to frontier AI models is causing concern, notes Bloomberg Opinion columnist Catherine Thorbecke, highlighting a French presidential candidate calling the move a wake up call, adding that “a nation that depends on others for its technology is a nation that can be unplugged overnight.”Elsewhere, the IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, worse than its previous forecast of a decline of about 420,000 a day, the biggest drop since Covid in 2020 amid “higher fuel prices and disruptions to product availability.” In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, and holding steady near record highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with German automaker BMW the biggest faller on the Stoxx 600 benchmark after slashing its profitability forecast, weighing on the wider auto subindex. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:Straumann shares jump as much as 11%, the most since October, after the Swiss dental implant maker increased its profitability guidance for the year. Analysts were upbeat on the magnitude of the outlook boostAixtron shares rise as much as 5.8% after JPMorgan analysts raised their estimates for the German semiconductor equipment supplier and set a new Street-high price target for the stockPZ Cussons climbs as much as 9.9%, to the highest since September 2024, after the personal care products maker said full-year adjusted operating profit should come in at, or slightly above, the upper end of the previously guided rangeBFF Bank shares rise as much as 13% in Milan trading, the most since May 12, after Italian newspaper MF reported that Banco BPM and Amco may be considering an offer for the bank, without citing sourcesLenzing advances as much as 12%, the most since August, after Berenberg turns positive on the textile producer for the first time in almost nine years, upgrading to buy from hold to reflect an improvement in pricingBMW shares fall as much as 12% after the German carmaker slashed its profitability forecast and ramped up its cost-cutting program, flagging worsening demand in China and negative sentiment from the war in the Middle East.Orange shares slip as much as 4.1% to the lowest since March after Barclays reinstated coverage with an equal-weight rating, saying upside value from the recent SFR deal is already caputred in valuationZealand Pharma falls as much as 8.1% after Berenberg cut its recommendation to hold from buy, saying unlocking upside will now take longer than previously anticipatedSilex Microsystems falls as much as 20% after several brokers initiated coverage of the Stockholm-listed specialist microchip maker that debuted on May 7. SEB starts coverage with a sell rating, saying it’s too richly valuedMedincell shares slump as much as 16%, the most since April 2022, after the French biopharma company reported full-year revenue that analysts said was weaker than expectedAsian stocks advanced for a fourth straight day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, erasing similar losses from earlier in the session. South Korea’s Kospi led regional gains as shares of memory chipmaker SK Hynix Inc. hit a record high. The Fed decision will cap a week of major central bank meetings, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy unchanged, both in line with forecasts. Here Are the Most Notable MoversTamron shares surged 24% to a record after the camera lens maker announced an unexpected mid-term plan and a significant expansion of shareholder returns.Kuaishou Technology shares gain 7.3% on optimism over Chinese AI firms and news that the company is in talks with General Atlantic for the first-round financing of its video unit Kuaishou Kling.SK Hynix shares gain as much as 5.7% to a record after Korea Economic Daily reported the memory chipmaker is preparing a shareholder return policy worth up to 100t won this year.Fila SpA has sold 4.25 million shares of DOMS Industries Ltd. for 2,200 rupees each, according to terms of the deal seen by Bloomberg News.Chinese printed circuit board supply chain stocks extended their climb after a report that a major upstream supplier plans to raise prices. Senasic Electronics Technology shares soar as much as 100% in their Hong Kong trading debut on Wednesday.Merdeka Gold Resources shares rise as much as 3.2% in Jakarta trading after the Indonesian miner offered 89.7 million HDRs at up to HK$26.60 each in its Hong Kong listing.Kingboard Holdings shares surge 17.7% after a unit agreed to sell 155 million shares of Kingboard Laminates for HK$76 per share through a block trade agreement.Senasic Electronics Technology shares more than doubled in their Hong Kong trading debut on Wednesday.In FX, the dollar is mixed versus peers. The krona is a touch weaker after the Riksbank held rates as expected. In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, following steady price action in oil and supported by wider gains across gilts, which outperform after UK headline and core inflation figures rose less than expected in May. Treasury yields remain within 1bp of Tuesday’s closing levels, the 10-year around 4.435%, with UK counterpart outperforming by 4bp; following UK CPI data, 10-year gilt yield dropped to a two-month low 4.734% as BOE rate-hike pricing for this year eased slightly. Focal point of US session is first FOMC decision of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tenure, expected to hold rates steady. Treasury auctions resume Thursday with $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 20-year saleIn commodities, WTI futures are up around 0.6% after rebounding from a fresh three-month low in anticipation of a US-Iran deal signing. Bitcoin is down 1.3%. Today's US economic data calendar includes May retail sales (8:30am) and April business inventories and May pending home sales (10am)Market SnapshotTop Overnight NewsBrent held below $80 as traders bet a US-Iran deal due to be signed Friday will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restore Iranian oil exports and give Tehran access to a $300 billion development program. BBGThe Trump administration’s emerging nuclear deal with Iran risks securing fewer restrictions than the deal negotiated by the Obama administration — one he derided and later scrapped. BBGAs the world awaits the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the signing of an interim peace deal between Iran and the US, the United Arab Emirates is working on a highly ambitious plan to try to end its dependence on the critical chokepoint. BBGG7 leaders agreed to tighten sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry and boost military support for Ukraine. The summit’s final day turns to AI, with OpenAI and Anthropic execs attending. BBGSenior Trump administration officials had weighed how to structure potential government equity stakes in major AI companies before the government’s export controls on Anthropic further roiled the industry. SemaforUS President Trump's administration considered requiring Anthropic to obtain government approval before allowing foreign nationals access to its most advanced AI models, as officials weigh new export control measures for AI tech.FOMC Preview: The most important change in the economic data since the last FOMC meeting is the impressive pick-up in job growth that has put the labor market on a sturdier trajectory. This has left the focus on whether the inflation situation is becoming concerning enough to warrant a rate hike. The war and the increase in oil prices will likely drive headline PCE inflation above 4% and leave core PCE inflation above 3% all year. But so far the impact on inflation looks more like the usual passthrough from large oil shocks than the pandemic’s wide-ranging shortages and price spikes. LinkUK inflation held at 2.8% in May, unchanged ‌from April's 13-month low and below forecasts from both economists and the Bank of England, official figures showed on Wednesday, a day before the central bank's next interest rate decision. BoE expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% on Thursday. RTRSSweden’s Riksbank assesses that it is well-balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent now, but the probability that the rate will be raised later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March. RiksbankConvertible bond issuance surges as companies rush to raise as much money as possible to fund their AI ambitions. WSJMiddle East NewsAn informed source told Tasnim that Bloomberg's alleged text about the US-Iran MoU is not accurate, adding that the text of the memorandum, based on the agreement of the parties, will not be published after it is signed on Friday. However, this was later corrected, stating that the text will be released after the signing on Friday.US Defence Secretary Hegseth and CIA Director Ratcliffe were among the “most pessimistic” about whether the Iranians would honour their commitments to make substantive concessions on their nuclear program, according to CNN.A US senior official was said to have dismissed as "preposterous", the reports of side deals in which Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar could unfreeze Iranian funds they hold, according to Axios.The US Senate voted 48-47 to narrowly block a new bid to rein in Trump's war powers.Trump administration officials were reported to be discussing ideas to kick-start oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including offering a fee-based “VIP pass” naval escort through the waterway, according to people familiar with the discussions cited by POLITICO.US officials told a CNN reporter that Iran's Supreme Leader has given his tacit approval of the MOU, and that there are internal discussions over whether he could issue a statement ahead of Friday's formal signing ceremony in Switzerland. It was separately reported that US officials downplayed the Iran agreement texts and said that the text omits key back-channel commitments, according to CNN.Israeli artillery shelling reported in southern Lebanon, according to SNN.Al Jazeera correspondent reported that 10 rockets were fired towards Israeli forces in the vicinity of Kfar Tebnit town in the Nabatieh district of southern Lebanon.A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NewquawkAPAC stocks ultimately traded mixed, albeit at an improvement from the initial losses seen following the subdued lead from Wall St, where most major indices finished in the red amid renewed tech selling. ASX 200 shrugged off early weakness and edged mild gains with upside led by mining, materials and tech, although further upside in the index is capped by losses in energy and the defensive sectors. Nikkei 225 clawed back initial losses and printed a fresh all-time high after briefly topping the 70,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid losses in auto names and aluminium producers, while they also failed to benefit from a report that the US delayed blacklisting China's DeepSeek and over 100 Chinese firms deemed national security risks. There was also little reaction seen to the PBoC's announcement to add overnight reverse repo instruments and to increase overnight reverse repo operations, as it seeks to improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission.Top Asian NewsPBoC Governor Pan said they will allow overseas institutions to access yuan liquidity and will add overnight reverse repo instruments at the appropriate time, while he added they will increase overnight reverse repo operations and improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission. Pan also stated that six banks are authorised to conduct offshore foreign exchange transactions in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and commented that it is difficult and unnecessary for China's credit growth to maintain its previous pace.PBoC announces an adjustment to the temporary overnight reverse repurchase and outright repurchase agreement time which is to be set between 15:00-15:30 local time (08:00-08:30BST/03:00-03:30EDT). PBoC seeks to ensure flexible and efficient use of temporary overnight reverse and outright repurchase agreements in the open market. Furthermore, PBoC said operating rates will be set at the 7-day reverse repurchase rate in the open market minus 25bps and plus 25bps, respectively, and that it will act when the money market overnight rate remains consistently below or above the respective operation rates of the tools.Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said they will step up financial supervision and will vigorously and orderly advance resolution of local government debt, while He added they will issue CNY 300bln special bonds to replenish the capital of financial institutions and that the financial sector will be opened up further.China's financial regulator said they will increase regulatory cooperation in emerging areas and will strengthen efforts to avert systemic financial risks. The regulator will also strictly curb unlawful financial activities and address risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions effectively and orderly, while China is to steer financial resources towards emerging and future industries.Senior leaders of Japan's ruling party said to have proposed cutting the consumption tax on food to 1% from April 2027 for a two-year period.European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) start Wednesday's trade mixed, with outperformance in the AEX (+0.7%) while the DAX 40 (-0.2%) lags after BMW cut guidance. Geopolitical newsflow has been light thus far as markets await for the official MoU signing on Friday.