The S&P 500 is catching its breath after one of the more remarkable welcome parties Wall Street has ever thrown for a new Federal Reserve chair. Kevin Warsh, sworn in as the 17th head of the Fed on May 22, 2026, has presided over gains in each of his first seven trading days, a streak that surpasses a record dating back to 1978, when the previous best was five consecutive up days under a new chair.
Now comes the hard part. Warsh’s first FOMC policy meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, and the mood heading into it is less “celebration” and more “cautious optimism with a side of nerves.”
The setup: inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical pressure
Price growth remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by a cocktail of geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, and existing tariffs that continue to work their way through the economy.
That backdrop has effectively killed any remaining hopes for rate cuts in the near term. Markets are now pricing in potential rate hikes later in 2026, a scenario that would have seemed almost unthinkable a year ago when the consensus was firmly in the “cuts are coming” camp.
